November 5th, 2016, Donald Trump just got elected as President of the United States and Real Estate sales in Lake Chapala boomed. Will it happen again? Judging by the polls, it looks like there is a 50/50 chance that it just might.
If there is a lesson to be learned from the last time, the lesson is not to wait too long on the sidelines. After all, Lake Chapala is a very small market and there are only so many homes available for sale. In fact, as of this writing, there are only 400 residential properties for sale. Take out a few of the outliers on the beach and in Guadalajara and you will find yourself with only about 350 properties in Lake Chapala. This is slightly more than half of historical levels prior to 2016! Before the stampede begins again, NOW is the time to start planning your exit strategy from the U.S.
The Real Estate Market To Date
I love statistics, so let's have a look at the past and see if Lake Chapala real estate is affordable enough for you to consider purchasing. Looking at our MLS archives I found the following:
Year Units Sold Avg. Price
2016 209 $184,000
2017 366 $212,000 2016/17 combined -- Avg. Price $202,000
.......jump to 2022
2022 491 $293,000
2023 366 $355,000
2024 (so far) 161 $403,000 2023/2024 combined -- Avg. Price $370,000
Okay, let's analyze the above stats.
2016 numbers show very few homes sold. This indeed fits the pattern as up to 2016 the market was "flat and slow" and had been for the previous 10 years.
2017 shows a huge jump in home sales, in fact a 75% increase over 2016 and prices started to rise as inventory fell.
Jump to 2022, and although inventory had risen slightly to over 400 units during Covid, this was quickly reduced again during 2021 and 2022. In fact 2022 was a banner year with 491 units sold!
Things settled down a bit in 2023, but because of the very low inventory, prices continued to shoot upwards at an even faster rate.
By the mid part of 2023 things began to slow down and this trend continued into 2024. In fact, 2024 is turning out to be very slow with only 161 units recorded as "sold" so far this year and we'll be lucky to reach the 209 units sold in 2016 when things were "flat and slow".
One other thing of interest is how much prices have increased. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 we see a 76% increase in residential property values. This is small compared to the U.S and Canada where home prices have increased 2-3 times during the same time period.
So what's happening? I think that people are holding their breath and waiting to see what happens in the next Federal Election. Also, there has been a general slow down in the U.S and Canadian markets due to high interest rates and people not being able to take on higher interest rate mortgages.
Buying in Lake Chapala will eliminate those problems as all sales here are cash and investing in Mexico's emerging and growing market just might be the smartest thing you ever did.
What Will The Future Bring?
Always a tough question but let's look at some facts....
The population of the U.S over 45 is roughly 149,475,159 million
The population of Canada of those 45-85 is roughly 16,791,810 million (Canadians have a Federal Election coming up in 2025 which is why I include it here)
Of this enormous population base, if half are disgruntled and want to flee their country, and 1/10 of 1% is interested in Lake Chapala, you have over 166,000 people who may look at Lake Chapala as their next place of residence.....and we have only 350 units available!
Do you want to be the one standing on the sidelines? Do you want to be the one left standing in this game of musical chairs? If there was ever a time to start thinking and planning ahead, now is the time! We, at Retire In Lake Chapala, have already had several customers this year who are taking the initiative and have made home purchases and started their Visa process because they are dissatisfied with the way things are (or to come?) in the U.S.
It Starts With Getting Your Visa
Speaking of Visas, if you are not aware, the bar for economic solvency has been increased every single year and the last administration made significant increases to Mexico's minimum wage which in turn resulted in significantly higher requirements for those applying for a Temporary or Permanent Visa. Now, the new President Claudia Sheinbaum, has vowed to increase the minimum wage a further 12%, making it even more difficult to meet the financial solvency requirements. See below the current solvency requirements for 2024:
*For application of Permanent Resident Status:
Total net worth (bank and investments) of approximately $293,000 USD ($395,500 CDN). Pension-based income of approximately $7300 USD ($9850 CDN) per month
*For the application of Temporary Resident Status:
Total net worth (bank and investments) of approximately $73,200 USD ($98,800 CDN) Pension-based income of approximately $4350 USD ($5870 CDN
(*excerpt from the book "The Ultimate Retirement Guidebook To Visiting & Retiring To Lake Chapala" available on Amazon Kindle)
Unfortunately, we are encountering more and more people who waited too long and now cannot obtain their Visa because they cannot show sufficient economic means, dashing their hopes for a retirement in Mexico.
So, stop procrastinating. Time is pressing, so the sooner you start planning your exit strategy, the better.
Our team at Retire in Lake Chapala is standing by and ready to answer your questions and assist you in your relocation to Lake Chapala. Contact Us!
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Email: heckertricardo@gmail.com
Michaela & Ricardo are your FULL SERVICE Real Estate Agents. With over 25 years of combined experience Lakeside, and our network of area Professionals, we help guide you to from beginning to forever in your Retirement Journey to Lake Chapala, Mexico.
